ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Denmark and Finland lock horns in Group B at Euro 2020 on Saturday.
Denmark vs Finland | Saturday 12th June 2020, 17:00 | BBC
Finland are heading into their first major tournament and start their Euro 2020 campaign playing Group B second favourites Denmark.
Many punters have been praising the Danes coming into the tournament with their price at 33/1 to win it outright taking appeal. They have home advantage for their opener here, as the tie is being played in Copenhagen.
The Danes have a hard-to-beat nature, qualifying for this championship with a 4W 4D and 0L record. The Danes have quality all over the pitch with a plethora of Premier League players, with main man Christian Eriksen usually delivering on the international stage.
All this points to a fair price on them being favourites to take top honours in Copenhagen. A best price of 8/15 is fair in my book but can’t be touched on a value perspective.
To boost the price, the angles that make the most sense are Denmark to win to nil at 21/20 at Bet365 and also in a game featuring Under 3.5 Goals at 10/11 with SkyBet.
These are practically the same bet, but I prefer Denmark and Under 3.5 goals given the 2-1 score line will still be on side, as well as 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 to the Danes.
With Teemu Pukki’s fitness questionable, Finland will look rather blunt in attack. They will look to sit deep and play on the break, but I’m not convinced they will have quality to beat Kasper Schmeichel.
Denmark have only lost twice in over three years in competitive games, and with their solid defence, combined with Finland not being roll overs, they should get the job done in a low scoring affair.
In their two most recent competitive games for World Cup qualifiers, Finland have conceded 19 and 17 shots at their goal, against Bosnia and Ukraine respectively – sides at a similar level, if not worse, to Denmark.
Denmark’s qualifying group saw them limit their opponents to close to nothing – recording an excellent average of 0.65 Expected Goals (xG) against per game, conceding just six goals in eight games.
Elsewhere, I believe it is worth taking a punt on Denmark’s main man to fire his nation to victory here. Christian Eriksen, who has had an inconsistent first full season in Serie A, will be relishing the opportunity to take the spotlight in Copenhagen.
A player built for the big occasion, Eriksen is the heartbeat of this team and takes spot kicks and free kicks. Eriksen notched four goals in six UEFA Nations League games, including against England. He scored five goals in eight Euro qualifiers, scoring a brace in two of last five in European Qualifiers, albeit against Gibraltar.
On paper, this is arguably Denmark’s easiest test in the group with the odds implying that if this game were to be played 10 times, Denmark win at least 7 of those.
That should give Eriksen ample opportunity to find some space and fire some shots at Lukas Hradecky’s goal. At 13/5 to score any time, Eriksen is way overpriced. Perhaps he has been priced based on his domestic form. He is 6/4 and 13/8 elsewhere, so we have a huge value price in my view.
Denmark vs Finland – Denmark to win and Under 3.5 Goals (10/11 SkyBet)
Denmark vs Finland – Christian Eriksen to score at any time (13/5 Betfair)
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