ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Belgium and Portugal lock horns in the last-16 at Euro 2020 on Sunday.
Belgium vs Portugal | Sunday 27th June 2020, 20:00 | ITV
So arguably the game of the Round of 16 gets underway on Sunday night with Belgium and Portugal locking horns in Seville.
It’s a shame that the reigning Champions take on the world number 1 on this pitch (Spain manager Luis Enrique has continuously criticised it), with the added sap of the Seville heat, with temperatures forecast to be over 30 degrees.
Belgium have not yet entered the higher gears as they won 3/3 group stages clashes and only having to up the tempo in the second half in Copenhagen.
Portugal on the other hand had scored seven goals and were the only team in Group F to defeat Hungary and played well in parts against France.
Hopefully these two sides go at each other from the start, as both sides are weaker in defence than attack. With neither side the most robust at the back, we should see goals.
Portugal managed seven goals from an Expected goals tally of 7.34. However, 3/7 of their goals were penalties so their non-penalty xG sits at 4.30, a more reliable figure based on their performance.
Belgium scored seven as well, but with an xG of 4.10. This suggests an overperformance in terms of finding the net, but this is surely down to the quality finishing of De Bruyne and Lukaku, for example.
With so much attacking talent on the pitch it is hard to dismiss the chance of Both Teams to Score from banking at 5/6 with Bet365 and therefore this is my BEST BET.
Indeed, Belgium do have two days extra rest and should be the fresher and fitter of the two teams.
One man who is certainly looking fresh and in the driving seat for the player of the tournament award now that he has returned to full fitness is Kevin De Bruyne.
The City man has been excellent and his performance against Finland got me looking towards getting a bet with him on side and 4/1 for him to register an assist at Betfair is simply too big.
KDB has assisted in both games he has played at Euro 2020 so far.
Last season he had 12 assists in 23 Premier League starts (52%)
4 assists in 8 Champions League starts (50%)
3 assists in 5 EURO 2016 starts – with 2 coming in the Round of 16 tie (60%).
For Belgium, in his last 11 international appearances, he has 12 assists.
Since the start of the 2019/20 season, for club and country, he has 52 assists in 98 games. So, given his outstanding record of assists this past year, and in his career, 4/1 is simply too long and anything just north of 2/1 is the correct price in my view.
Belgium vs Portugal – Both Teams To Score (5/6 Bet365)
Belgium vs Portugal – Kevin De Bruyne 1+ assists (4/1 Betfair)
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